You have probably seen the running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, where huge beasts rampage down the street, wrecking anyone and anything in their way. The crypto bull run is not a whole lot different from the carnage that goes down on those Spanish streets. In this case though, it is the bears who get sent home in a St John’s ambulance as skyrocketing prices crush their pessimistic dreams.
A "Bull Run" in the context of crypto refers to a market condition where prices of cryptocurrencies are increasing, often at a pace that will melt your face off. This term is also used in traditional stock markets, but the intensity of a crypto bull cannot be matched by anything in the traditional finance world.
A crypto bull run is characterized by strong investor confidence and optimistic sentiment, leading to increased buying activity. The stages of such a run can be seen in the below diagram and generally play out in such a way. Any guesses as to where we are now?
What Causes A Bull Run?
Investor confidence is a primary driver of a bull run. This surge in confidence can be influenced by various factors, such as positive market news, advancements in blockchain technology, or strong economic indicators. For example, favorable cryptocurrency regulations announced by a major country could ignite optimism among investors, contributing to a bull run.
A recent catalyst can be seen in the announcement of a long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF. This signals the entrance of major traditional finance firms and, with them, large amounts of fresh liquidity to send prices higher.
The overall mood or attitude of investors, known as market sentiment, also plays a crucial role. Positive sentiment can create a self-reinforcing cycle where rising prices attract more buyers. This FOMO behavior can accelerate faster than anyone can possibly imagine as sidelined investors begin to throw their bearish towels in and join in on the action.
Cryptocurrency technological innovations and upgrades can also help trigger a bull run. Investors often view these advancements as indicators of future value increases. Often, these advancements in technology will happen in specific sectors of crypto and cause major attention to swing their direction. Keep your eyes out for these upcoming upgrades to stay one step ahead of the masses!
Mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies by major companies or financial institutions not only enhances the legitimacy of digital assets but also leads to increased demand. Furthermore, extensive media coverage and growing public interest can draw new investors to the market, injecting fresh capital and pushing prices upward. You have probably seen the likes of celebrities, sport stars and musicians shilling their favorite ponzis to the masses, it’s just a matter of time before it happens again!
Looking at historical patterns, the cryptocurrency market has seen several notable bull runs. This cyclical nature itself creates the conditions needed for future bull runs as investors and degens alike anticipate it playing out on repeat. The 2017 bull run, for instance, was marked by a dramatic increase in Bitcoin's price, driven largely by a surge in public interest and media coverage. The 2020-2021 bull run was influenced by factors such as institutional investment and PayPal's adoption of cryptocurrencies, alongside the broader impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on digital finance and the huge amounts of stimulus that followed.
How Does A Bull Run End?
A bull run in the cryptocurrency market, characterized by rising prices and optimistic sentiment, ends through a combination of market dynamics, external factors, and psychological shifts among investors. When this end comes, it comes fast, so take close note of the following points to avoid round tripping all your hard earned gains.
Causes Of A Bull Run’s End
Market Saturation and Overvaluation: One primary factor is market saturation. As prices rise, more investors are drawn in, hoping to capitalize on the upward trend. This influx of investment drives prices even higher, often leading to overvaluation. Cryptocurrencies may reach a point where their prices are no longer supported by fundamental value, making them susceptible to a sharp correction.
Profit-Taking and Selling Pressure: As the market peaks, early investors start to take profits, selling their holdings. This selling pressure can initiate a downward trend. When other investors notice this shift, it can trigger a cascade of sell orders, as they rush to cash out before prices fall further.
External Factors: External factors can also play a significant role in ending a bull run. Regulatory changes, geopolitical events, technological issues, or macroeconomic shifts can impact investor confidence and market stability. For example, a government crackdown on cryptocurrencies or a major hack of a crypto exchange can cause widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), leading to a sell-off.
Psychological Shifts: The psychology of investors is a crucial factor. The fear of missing out (FOMO) drives the bull run, but as sentiment shifts, fear of loss can become predominant. Negative news or market signals can lead to panic selling, exacerbating the downturn.
Liquidity Crunch: During a bull run, liquidity – the ease with which assets can be bought and sold – is typically high. However, as the market turns, liquidity can dry up. Sellers may find it harder to offload their assets at desired prices, leading to sharper price declines.
Technical Analysis Indicators: Many investors use technical analysis to guide their decisions. Certain patterns and indicators that suggest a bull run is overbought or losing momentum can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders act on these signals.
Intervention by Financial Institutions: Sometimes, intervention by central banks or financial institutions can impact a bull run. For example, if a central bank decides to tighten monetary policy, it can reduce the amount of money available for investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Network and Technological Factors: For cryptocurrencies specifically, network issues like slow transaction times, high fees, or security vulnerabilities can also erode investor confidence and contribute to the end of a bull run.
The end of a bull run in the crypto market is a complex process influenced by a mixture of market dynamics, external events, psychological factors, and technical indicators. Understanding these elements can help investors better navigate the volatile landscape of cryptocurrency investing.
How Long Do Bull Runs Last?
The duration of a bull run varies due to several factors. First, cryptocurrency markets follow cycles, including bullish (upward) and bearish (downward) trends. Bull runs are part of these cycles, often occurring when there's widespread enthusiasm and positive news surrounding cryptocurrencies.
If we look at the history of Bitcoin, previous bull runs have ranged from approximately 6 months to over 2 years. This means that bull runs can be relatively lengthy, providing investors with extended opportunities to profit from rising prices.
The sentiment of market participants also plays a role in the duration of a bull run. When more people are buying and holding cryptocurrencies, the bull run can persist. However, market sentiment can change rapidly, so following Blocmates to stay informed is crucial!
External factors, such as regulatory changes, global economic events, and technological developments, can influence how long a bull run lasts. These external influences are challenging to predict accurately.
Ultimately, the bull run's duration may also be affected by profit-taking. As investors who have benefited from the rising prices start selling their cryptocurrencies to realize profits, it can lead to a slowdown or the end of the bull run.
For beginners, it's essential to conduct thorough research, establish a clear investment strategy, and consider factors like risk tolerance and long-term goals before aping in and participating in a bull run. Additionally, it's important to be prepared for the possibility that a bull run may not last as long as anticipated so remember to take those profits at some stage!
History Of Bull Runs
The journey through the history of cryptocurrency bull runs is as thrilling as it is complex. From the birth of Bitcoin to the latest surges in its value, each phase of this digital asset class has been marked by significant events and trends.
The Early Days and First Surge (2009-2013)
The story begins in 2008 with the creation of the Bitcoin network by Satoshi Nakamoto, introducing the world to the first cryptocurrency. Initially, Bitcoin didn't hold any substantial market value until Mt. Gox exchange came into existence in 2010. Between 2010 and 2013, Bitcoin's value witnessed a remarkable rise from almost nothing to approximately $150. The year 2013 was particularly notable as Bitcoin experienced its first major bull run, with its price escalating from $145 to an impressive $1,200, peaking in November.
Recovery and Mainstream Attention (2015-2017)
After enduring a bear market in 2014, Bitcoin entered a period of recovery in 2015. The price climbed from $178 to around $463 by the end of the year and continued its upward trajectory into 2016, reaching $1,150 by the year's end. The year 2017 marked a significant turning point, as Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from about $1,100 to nearly $20,000 by December. This period was characterized by a surge in mainstream media coverage and a burgeoning interest in cryptocurrencies.
Digital Transformation and Recent Trends (2020-2021)
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 accelerated the world's shift towards digital solutions, casting a spotlight on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's value saw a significant increase from around $8,000 to a remarkable $39,300 by the end of 2020. The upward trend continued into 2021, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $68,700. The combination of endless stimulus cheques and those receiving them being stuck at home with nothing better to spend them on, certainly played into this mind-blowing run up.
Influential Factors Behind Bull Runs
Several key factors have influenced these bull runs. Bitcoin Halving Events, which occur approximately every four years, have historically been precursors to bull runs by impacting the supply and demand of Bitcoin. Geopolitical factors and economic crises, such as the 2011 European Recession and the financial crisis in Cyprus, have also played a role in driving people towards cryptocurrencies as alternative financial solutions. Furthermore, increased media attention and the entry of institutional investors have significantly fueled the growth and popularity of cryptocurrencies.
Reflecting on the Past
The history of crypto bull runs is a testament to the dynamic and evolving nature of this digital asset class. Understanding the patterns and influences of past bull runs can offer valuable insights for both experienced investors and those new to the world of cryptocurrency.
What Is A Bear Market?
A bear market is a term used to describe a significant and sustained decline in market prices. This concept is applicable across various markets, including cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. In a bear market, there is a strong downward trend in market prices over a relatively short period, often characterized by steep declines. For example, in the more volatile and smaller cryptocurrency markets, it's not rare to see price drops as drastic as 85% and some projects taking the fall all the way to zero!
The onset of a bear market within traditional markets is typically identified when there's a 20% drop in prices within a 60-day period, however in the crypto world we eat 20% drops for breakfast so it’s harder to predict when the real bear has arrived. This decline is usually a result of investor pessimism and a loss of confidence in the overall market performance, leading investors to sell off their holdings, which further drives down prices.
To predict and identify bearish trends, traders and analysts attempt to use a variety of tools and indicators, such as moving averages, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the On-Balance Volume (OBV). Understanding these indicators can help give investors an edge as they significantly influence investment strategies and decisions.
What Causes A Bear Market?
Several factors contribute to this atmosphere. Economic elements like rising interest rates, inflation, or a global economic downturn can make investors jittery. They often respond by selling their riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies, in favor of more secure options. Also, regulatory changes can play a significant role. When governments or financial authorities announce new rules or limitations on cryptocurrencies, it can create fear among investors about the future usability and tradability of their digital assets, leading to a decrease in prices.
Market manipulation occasionally adds to this downward trend. Large holders of cryptocurrencies, often called "whales," can significantly influence the market. If they offload a large amount of crypto, it can trigger a price drop, leading to a bear market. Additionally, technological issues like security breaches, hacking incidents, or failures in key cryptocurrency platforms can erode trust and push prices down. These major protocol and platform collapses have been the most common trigger of bear markets in the past few cycles so definitely something to be on the lookout for!
Lastly, the bursting of speculative bubbles is a common trigger. Often, the prices of cryptocurrencies skyrocket rapidly due to speculation rather than the inherent value of the technology or project. When investors recognize this imbalance, a sell-off occurs, causing the bubble to burst and further fueling the bear market.
Where Do The Terms Bull Run And Bear Market Come From?
The terms "Bull Run" and "Bear Market" in the financial world, including the cryptocurrency market, have intriguing origins and implications. The term "Bull Run" is derived from the way a bull attacks, thrusting its horns upward, symbolizing rising prices in the market.
On the other hand, the term "Bear Market" is believed to have originated from the way a bear attacks by swiping its paws downward, representing falling prices in the market. Another theory suggests its origin from "bearskin jobbers," who were middlemen speculating on the future purchase price of bearskins before actually owning them.
These animal metaphors, bull and bear, are used to simplify and describe market trends and investor sentiments in the financial world so expect to hear the terms used often.
Final Thoughts
Bull markets and bear markets are natural cycles that will come and go until the end of time. Learning how to identify these market types will make you a more successful investor in the long run.
Traders and investors alike have spent much of their lives trying to figure out exactly when the top and bottom is in, but very few succeed. It is therefore of utmost importance to have a plan of your own and act when you think the time is right.
There are exceptional amounts of profits to be made during a bull market and equally there is opportunity to profit during a bear market if you know how to play things the right way. The one market we all hate and luckily don’t have to deal with too often in the world of crypto is the dreaded crab market, but that is a story for another time!
