GMGM Happy Monday!
Isn’t it a beautiful sight?! Seeing the first god-like green candle on the Bitcoin weekly close in MONTHS! Is it a bear market rally? Probably, so take advantage, pay yourself and enjoy the loot whilst it’s here.
It’s a fun one today as we dig into why the market has pumped and reveal a unique sentiment checker invented by blocmates himself! So let’s jump straight into it today…
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The TLDR of what’s inside
🔥 The Big Topic: OMG BITCOIN IS ALIVE, 3 Reasons Why the Markets are PUMPING!
🗞 Hot Crypto News: The House of Representatives for a new crypto subcommittee, FTT degens pump price, crypto influencers NFT_God falls victim to Google Ads Malware attack, Korean Hackers cash in on 41,000 ETH AND MORE…
👀 Updates Across the Block: ONDO Finance brings US Treasuries and bonds on-chain, Lyra Finance introduces Cash Collateral, AAVE V3 alpha update, Frax hit 60,000 frxETH with the 2023 roadmap coming very soon, AND MORE…
🛡 Chart of the day: $BTC, back to $31,000 and beyond?
🔥 The Big Topic
3 Reasons Why the Markets are PUMPING
Ermmm, excuse me Bitcoin but we’re supposed to be in a recession.
You know… that whole negative global sentiment thing?
That down only until $8,000 REKT’age you’ve been doing since $69,000?!
But JFC Bitcoin is alive right now, Altcoins are absolutely flying and market makers are making bankroll off of your liquidations.
Not the best way to start the weekend for this hopeful trader.
But why now? The macro hasn’t really changed. We are still heading into a recession, public sectors are still going on strike over pay and there are still heavy geopolitical factors at play.
1930s economist John Maynard Keynes once said: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” which relates perfectly to what’s happening right now.
An illogically logical pump that if you caught the right side of means you likely won’t be eating ramen for the next 2 months.
But why now, you ask? Well, here are 3 reasons why the market is pumping:
1) Short sellers getting REKT
You know when you’re feeling fomo and you’re the last one to turn up to the party?
Yeah that’s what happened to the late short sellers trying to short support using that juicy 100x leverage in a cloud of hopium to make it all back in one trade (we’ve all done it!).
Check it, this chart explains it beautifully as you can see where the market makers ripped the price to the upside and paid themselves handsomely over the weekend.
It’s been a while since we have had a flush like this to the upside instilling hope. Hope that will probably get the fomo longers rekt at some stage.
And remember frens… the market makers HUNT your liquidation level. And in an illiquid market, it’s even easier to slice and dice the extremes.
2) A Softlanding Is Coming
Or at least that’s what the media is leading you to believe as CPI dropped from 7.1 down to 6.5 (this is still high and far from J Powell’s 2% inflation target.)
I was watching Bloomberg all last week and every hour they would play a sound reel of their guests claiming that a “soft landing is coming” and “Goldman Sachs has laid off 20% of the workforce BUT downgraded recession fears” which to me sounds like great news.
No more recessions, markets are in recovery mode and we can all live happily ever after.
But this feels like similar shenanigans to when the US Fed was screaming inflation is transitory and then BOOM… Bitcoin turned out not to be a hedge for inflation or digital gold, and inflation was in fact actually very real.
Note: I’m just a Chad with a Laptop living in mum’s basement so what do I know?
Here’s a fun fact for you. The GDP of the UK rose during the World Cup Seasons because we overspent on beer and pizza (true story) which led Bloomberg to report that the “UK MAY not be in a recession… for now.” The perfect ending to a recession and a shocking World Cup defeat!
3) blocmates got bored
Yesss serrr, blocmates himself has the ungodly power of a market maker.
Here’s how blocmates sentiment algorithm works:
Market dumps = Holiday, Sunburn and questionable selfies with the locals in discord
Market pumps = Boredom barometer hits an all-time high, stables haven’t depegged and owes people bitcorns
Simple and unfadeable.
If anyone can make a trading view indicator of this that would be fantastic!
You would have gotten the heads up if you saw last Friday’s The Ape Enclosure – IS THE BULL BACK?! podcast when he dropped this quote of the day:
“If I’m feeling bored I’m sure a few other people are… that’s some really in-depth technical and fundamental analysis that is VERY actionable”
PS, I’ll keep Discord updated with daily “blocmates boredom sentiment” check-in so we don’t marry my bags on this run-up.
PPS. Obviously, NFA/DYOR as this style of technical and fundamental analysis is extremely rare.
We aren’t on ramen this week, mates!
No one got rekt taking profits or taking profits too early.
It’s the name of the game after all.
But how sustainable is this rally? Judging by the Bitcoin chart below we are due for a pullback before the next leg occurs. With the US markets closed for Martin Luther King day today we hope that this upwards momentum is continued.
And finally, could we have seen this happening?
You could certainly see something was about to happen, as Bitcoin broke out of its squeeze to recover the red vector candle/fair value gap as the RSI flipped positive and volume was coming back.
🗞 Hot Crypto News
FTT Surges as degens across the world simply can’t get enough off the SBF narrative in a classic pump ‘n’ dump.
The House of Representatives form a new crypto subcommittee to develop new rules and provide rules for regulators.
Scaramucci 🤝 Brett. The SkyBridge Capital founder invests in former FTX US CEO Brett Harrison’s latest crypto software project which is still yet to have a public name.
Larry Fink is BULLISH. The CEO of BlackRock sees optimistic investment opportunities in 2023 as he recently appeared on CNBC. He also goes on to say “I look forward to the day when we can tokenize stocks and bonds” and “We want to democratize the vote.”
North Korean Lazarus Group, begin moving the 41,000 ETH they looted from the Harmony One hack, distributing it to 3 different exchanges after putting them through the privacy platform Railgun.
Googles Ads CAN Contain Malware, as crypto influencer NFT_God fell victim to the phishing attack claiming he lost his “entire digital livelihood.” Another reminder to practice safe self–custody and be super careful when clicking ads.
More layoffs for Web3 as Kris Marszalek CEO and Co-Founder of crypto exchange Crypto.com announces a global workforce cull of 20%.
Alameda Research Liquidators liquidate themselves for $72,000 as they try to close out a position on AAVE. You honestly couldn’t make some of this up!
When positions are forcibly closed on AAVE, a penalty is also slashed from the liquidated collateral.
The liquidators, themselves, were liquidated. Are they in over their heads?
👀 Updates Across the Block
AAVE V3 alpha regarding the V3 Ethereum release process including initial assets (wBTC, wETH, wstETH, USDC, DAI, LINK and AAVE).
FRAX hit 60,000+ frxETH supply with the imminent launch of their 2023 roadmap.
GMD PROTOCOL breaks the $5m TVL mark 2 months after launch.
LAYERZERO has just updated its ecosystem infographic totaling 63 projects.
LYRA FINANCE introduces Cash Collateral removing the need for Lyras AMM to swap to spot assets, collateralizing with cash, and hedging with perps instead.
POLYGON will be hard forking on January 17th to improve the severity of gas spikes and address chain reorganizations.
STRADER LABS, a multichain liquid staking platform release the “all you need to know about ETHx lite paper.”
UNISWAP, discussion on the Optimism Phase 2 liquidity mining program to determine new parameters on how to distribute the 100,000 OP over a 3-week period.
GMX, proposal discussion to launch on the BNB chain after the launch of the upcoming GMX Synths.
FLUX FINANCE, the proposal is looking to include support for ONDO where investors could lend and borrow stablecoins against US Treasuries exposure.
🛡 Chart of the day
$BTC, back to $31,000 and beyond?
Steady lads, we’ve got our first STRONG GOD candle on the weekly close taking us back up to the point we were at before SBF caused carnage back in November 2022.
Weekly RSI has firmly flipped to the upside and we’re testing a key area at the $21,000 mark, slowly approaching the 50 EMA which has always been a good indicator as to what might happen next.
Bull Case, we break, flip and see another god candle-like volume candle creep in taking us first to $25,000 zone and then pushing up through the 50 EMA towards to $31,000 zone.
Bear Case, it was all just a dream and the hunt for liquidity continues and the last-minute longs get rekt as the market makers rip the price to the downside back to $18,000 then $15,000, and ultimately $12,000.
Markets are closed today for Martin Luther King day and Wednesday is shaping up to be a big day.
If the numbers are positive then maybe, just maybe, we get another god-like candle to the upside.
And on that note, thanks for reading, have a fantastic day, and see you all in the next episode!
– Team blocmates signing out
🤝 A Final Word
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